quantum-probability-forge/polymarket-trading-bot

This is an automated trading bot for Polymarket, a prediction market platform where you bet on whether something will go up or down. Specifically, it focuses on short-horizon crypto price markets: questions like whether Bitcoin will be higher or lower in the next 5 minutes, 15 minutes, or up to 24 hours. The bot handles the full trading loop automatically, from detecting active markets and checking live prices to placing buy and sell orders. Polymarket runs on a system called a CLOB, which stands for central limit order book, meaning orders are matched like a traditional exchange rather than through a simpler mechanism. This bot connects to that order book directly and checks prices every second. All balance checks use your actual on-chain wallet state rather than estimating from memory, so what you see in the logs reflects real positions. There are two configurable strategies. The first is exit-only: if you already hold a position, it will close that position when either a price threshold or a time threshold is crossed. It does not open new trades. The second strategy is more complete: it enters a position once per market window when conditions align, exits when the price moves to a target range, and can optionally flip to the opposite side immediately after selling if prices suggest the other direction is now favored. Configuration is handled through a settings file called trade.toml where you specify which strategy to use, how much money to commit per trade, which coin and time window to trade, and the threshold values that trigger entries and exits. Wallet credentials are stored in a separate environment file. The bot supports Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP across various window lengths. The README includes a clear disclaimer that this software is for education and research, that prediction markets carry financial and regulatory risk, and that automated trading can lose money quickly. It recommends starting with very small trade sizes to understand the behavior before scaling up.