quantum-probability-forge/polymarket-arbitrage-trading-bot

This is an automated trading bot for Polymarket, a prediction market where you bet on whether a cryptocurrency price will go up or down within a set time window. It targets short-horizon markets on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, from 5-minute to 24-hour windows. The bot connects directly to Polymarket's central limit order book, polls live prices every second, and places orders automatically based on rules you define in a configuration file. A central limit order book matches buyers and sellers in real time, similar to a stock exchange. Orders here are Fill-and-Kill: they execute at the best available price the moment they are placed, or they are canceled. Portfolio balances are read directly from the blockchain at each tick, so figures in the logs reflect actual on-chain positions rather than estimates. Two strategies are offered. The first is exit-only, designed for closing an existing position when either a price ratio or a time ratio passes a threshold you set. The second handles entry as well: it opens a position once per market window when conditions are met, exits when the price enters a target range, and can optionally swap immediately to the opposite token if the price moves far enough in the other direction after the exit. Authentication with Polymarket is handled automatically. If you do not specify a signature mode, the bot tries a proxy wallet method first and then falls back to a direct wallet method. It also automatically detects when a market window has ended and moves to the next one without manual intervention. Configuration is split between a trade.toml file, which holds strategy settings and market selection, and a .env file, which holds private keys. The README recommends starting with very small trade sizes to understand the bot's behavior before scaling up, and includes a disclaimer that prediction market trading carries real financial and regulatory risk. The full README is longer than what was shown.