apex-quant-systems/polymarket-weather-trading-bot

This is an automated trading bot for Polymarket, a prediction market platform where users bet real money on the outcome of future events. Specifically, it targets Polymarket's daily temperature markets: questions like "Will the highest temperature in New York City on this date fall between 70 and 75 degrees?" The bot answers those questions using actual weather forecast data and places bets when it believes the market price is wrong relative to what the forecast says. The bot's logic is straightforward. For each city you configure, it fetches the daily maximum temperature forecast from a weather service (the US National Weather Service for American cities, Open-Meteo for international ones). It then finds the matching market on Polymarket, identifies which temperature range bucket the forecast falls into, and compares the current market price for that bucket to two thresholds you set: one for buying in and one for taking profit. Trades are sized at 5% of the available balance per entry, with hard caps on how many new positions it opens per run. There are three operating modes. Signal mode just prints what the bot would do without touching anything. Paper mode simulates trades against a local ledger file so you can see how a strategy performs over time without risking real money. Execute mode places actual limit orders on the Polygon blockchain through Polymarket's order book. It is designed so you test in signal and paper modes before going live. Setting it up requires Node.js 18 or later, a Polymarket wallet funded with their USD-pegged token on the Polygon network, and a private key for signing transactions. All credentials are passed through environment variables rather than any config file. The bot supports several wallet types including a basic wallet, a Polymarket proxy wallet, and a Gnosis Safe multisig, controlled by a single environment variable. The repository covers about two dozen cities across North America, Europe, and Asia. A loop mode runs the full cycle automatically every 30 minutes. This is trading software that interacts with real money and a live blockchain, so the README explicitly recommends running in simulation modes before enabling live orders.